Skip to main content

Once Every Twenty Thousand Years

This is how the lottery works:

Let us suppose that 1,000,000 of us put in a dollar each every week.
Then, every week, one of us wins the lottery and gets a million dollars.
If we do that long enough, the odds are that every one of us will win
the lottery once every 20,000 years.  With a little good luck, you might
win more often, and with a little bad luck, you might never win, but
if we play long enough, it will even out:  once every 20,000 years!

We won't actually win the whole million.  Someone will figure
the present value, and the future value, and make us an offer,
and keep the rest for overhead and expenses:  that sort of thing.
But let us not quibble.  Fifty of us will win every year.  Nine hundred
and ninety-nine thousand, nine hundred and fifty will not.
We will be a buck poorer every week, but with a little luck, the odds are
that we will have our turn to win:  once every 20,000 years.

It is a marvelous system!  It gives us hope!  If we win, we will quit
our jobs immediately, without even going in to work, and we will
pay off our home mortgage and credit card balances and retire.
In about 20,000 years, unless it happens sooner, or later.

Lotteries require a lot of losers, and very few winners.

Well, what are the alternatives?  I suppose we could take
a million dollars a week and build some schools, or clinics.
Maybe clean up the lake and make a park.  Build a road.
Dig a well.  Start a ferry service over to the island, or find a way
to deliver the mail.  Start a retirement fund for the elderly.

We could call the buck a week, "a tax".  Everybody has to
chip in.  Pay their share, Do their part.  Share in the benefits.
Maybe a dollar a week would not do it.  We could talk about
that and maybe each chip in . . . oh, on the average, let us say . . .
about what we leave in tips at the restaurant:  maybe 18%.
Lordy!  With--let us say--seventy-five or a hundred dollars
a week, a million people could do a lot of good things.
A hundred million a week could fix up this place pretty good!
For almost everyone.

Someone should look into this "taxes" idea.  You know,
a fair tax.  People with a lot could pay more than most;
people just getting by could get a break.  It surely would be better
than hoping to win the lottery once every 20,000 years.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Friends-- My step-father of 35 years died this morning. His name was Conrad Royksund. He was 86 years old. He was born into poverty on a farm near Puyallup, WA. He was the first member of his family to attend college and earned a PhD from the University of Chicago. He paid his way through all of that by fishing in Alaska. He spent his professional career as a college professor. I met him when I was just 3 years old and don't actually have any memories of my life befor e he was in it. He was intimidatingly smart, funny as hell, and worked his ass off. He taught me to meet people with kindness and decency until I was certain they could not be trusted. He taught me to meet ideas with carving knives until I was certain they could. I will remember him as one of the bravest, most curious, and funniest people I have ever met. He left this world with a satisfied mind. We are so grateful. Dan Hubbard

Nice to Run Into You Again

We do not see things in enormous time-frames.  We human beings are fairly new at figuring things out for ourselves.  For instance, some  people today still think of the earth as a newly created thing, perhaps ten thousand years old.  Earth is actually about four-and-a-half billion years old.   That is to say, the earth is 450,000 times older than the Adam and Eve story, and the universe is three times older than that! I recall first hearing that continents were slowly drifting around the earth, and that there quite likely had been several times when the continents were squeezed together.  But people could stand on the edge of their own continents, and not see Africa or Asia getting closer.  It took at least fifty years to figure things out. We called our continent something special. But sure enough, there have been numerous times during several-billion year history of the earth, when supercontinents formed, and eventually drifted off. ...

The Sea is Rising

Let us just step back:  two hundred and fifty years ago, or so, the ships of England and Spain had drifted onto a whole new continent, as they saw it, from far north to a savagely cold south; pole to pole, as if there were such things. Millions of people already lived here, some of them still hunters and gatherers; some of them very wealthy, indeed!  Gold and silver stolen from the southern Americas funded Spanish and English dreams. There was land, lots of land, under starry skies above, rich land, and oil and coal and iron ore.  The whole western world learned how to build industries not on simple muscle power, but on steam and oil.  We farmed, too, of course.  All we needed was cheap labor--slave labor from Africa, mostly, so the ships came with slave labor.  Chinese labor built railroad beds where there had been rock cliffs. Europeans, long used to killing each other for good, religious reasons, brought their religious savagery with them. ...