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Threat Index


Science magazine has an article that tries to understand what lies behind national differences.  It is not economic, political,or religious differences.  


The real difference, the study suggests, has to do with whether the nation, in its history, has had to deal with threats:  threats to its territory, a persistent threat of disease, a population threat, and the like.  Nations that live with threats have to be disciplined, coordinated, learn obedience, and take collective action.  


Other nations have an easier time.  Food might be abundant, the land rich, perhaps well-away from major enemies, rich in resources, and with room for expansion.  There is no enduring history of living under threat.  


Gareth Cook says the study call the first type of nation, "tight", and the latter, "loose".  Pakistan and India and China and Korea are "tight".  Greece and Australia and Brazil are "loose".  


On a scale, Brazil scored 3.5.  Pakistan scored 12.3.  The average was 6.5.  The USA was a bit "loose", at 5.1.  Cook suggests we are "loose", but the scores don't really suggest that; only that we are pretty loose  compared to Pakistan or India or China and, I suspect, Afghanistan and Iran and Russia.  


Aside from the relationship to other nations, finding ourselves a little on the loose side of most nations seems to clarify something about our internal divisions; even stalemate.  


We clearly have a large number of people who feel threatened.  They speak as if we face life-threats.  They want discipline, rules about marriage and abortion and what language we can speak.  They want an official, national religion, and a fixed definition of marriage, and maybe even rules about wearing veils.  


On the other hand, perhaps even more people want to ride easy on most of those issues.  They tolerate diversity, and dislike obedience, and prefer to leave people alone.  They wear their shirt tails out, and caps at lunch, and don't feel like going to church.  


Some of us see new immigrants as a threat; others think not.  Some of us think we are too quick to see overseas threats; others think we have to do something.  Some squirm at all the "homeland security"; others say we need stricter measures.  Technological change is a threat to some; opportunity to others.  


Maybe it does boil down to how threatened history has taught us to be, or how easy we feel about our chances.  Is marriage threatened, or just changing?  Is our Constitution under threat?  Is our security threatened by Iran, or by DNA research?  By universal health care, or by the lack of it?


Maybe we need to talk about those things, if for no reason other than to understand why we feel as we do, and to understand each other.

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